April 15, 2012

The Big Picture

The stock market is driven by two factors: interest rates and earnings.  Low interest rates and rising earnings support stock prices.  But what happens when rates are as low as they can go?  And what happens when earnings results differ from expectations?  [Read more…]

March 26, 2012

The Big Picture

Spring is here, according to the calendar and the trees, so-end-of-quarter window dressing can’t be far behind.

And this spring may see a bit more activity than usual from money managers and hedge-fund operators.  The economic recovery has finally spilled over into the labor market and the nay-sayers are starting to take notice.  So far this year, the S&P 500 index is up 11% and up a stunning 23.5% since September 30, 2011.  [Read more…]

The Big Picture

 It’s been three years since the stock market bottomed and its getting more difficult for the naysayers.  The labor market is improving, consumer confidence is rising and the major market averages have nearly doubled from their March 9, 2009 lows.

First, look at the jobs picture.  Last month the economy created 227,000 new jobs, the third consecutive month of 200,000 plus new jobs created and six consecutive months of job growth.

The quality of the jobs created is also improving.  No longer concentrated in low-paying service jobs, the recent gains were across the board.  Service jobs continue to dominate the growth, a reflection of our service-based economy.  However, [Read more…]